​With Donald Trump’s entrance into the White House, the global economic landscape might face a wave of political decisions challenging the international order:

• Preparation for US tariffs: Trump could, and likely will, impose tariffs of 10%-20% on certain European products.
• European Central Bank policy in response to Trump’s inflationary policies: The European Central Bank will face a tough dilemma: to maintain interest rate cuts—thereby aiding Germany in its recession—potentially leading to a depreciation of the euro against the dollar, or to follow the Federal Reserve’s anticipated path of interest rate hikes.

According to projections shared by the Agency for Business Competitiveness (ACCIÓ) in its report “Economic and Geopolitical Impacts of Donald Trump’s Election”, the European GDP could decrease by 0,5% to 1,5% by 2025 due to the “Trump era,” while Catalonia might see a GDP contraction of 0,2% to 0,4%.

However, Trump’s policy is not the only challenge European companies will face in the coming years:

• Changes in globalisation: There is a rise in barriers worldwide to secure value chains within individual countries (increased protectionism), while multilateralism seems to have taken a backseat.

• Geopolitical conflicts: Events such as the war in Ukraine and tensions between Russia and the West have heightened global risks.

• Innovation gap in the European Union: According to the report “The Future of European Competitiveness: A Competitiveness Strategy for Europe”, this is a critical challenge for securing Europe’s future competitiveness. The EU lags behind the US and China, especially in key sectors such as digital technology, artificial intelligence, and cloud services.

• Green transition: Reducing the carbon footprint remains a priority, but dependence on key minerals, the European Union’s transition to the EU is controlled mainly by China, complicating the panorama in Europe.
• Relations with China: The European Union faces the challenge of balancing trade relations with China, a crucial economic partner, but one that often operates outside international trade norms.

In light of the above, companies must adopt proactive measures to address these challenges and prepare various roadmaps to adapt swiftly to any scenario. The main strategy should focus on diversification into other markets to reduce strategic dependencies and mitigate geopolitical risks, defined as a “China Plus One” or de-risking strategy.

How will this global context affect the European M&A market?

The rise in geopolitical risks and regulatory uncertainty will likely lead to a reorientation of European M&A operations towards local markets, with greater emphasis on strategic and sustainable sectors such as technology and renewable energy. This sectoral trend has already been evident in the latter half of the year, with the FinTech sector, for example, experiencing a boom in strategic acquisitions.

While the restrictive monetary policies of the European Central Bank may limit the capacity of European companies to finance acquisitions, reducing dynamism in M&A particularly in cross-border agreements and less strategic sectors. A hypothetical depreciation of the euro against the dollar, stemming from a gap between Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policies, could make European companies more attractive to foreign buyers. Additionally, Europe’s geopolitical stability provides an advantage.

According to data from Mergermarket, the total value of M&A transactions in the first half of 2024 in Europe increased by 31% year-on-year – €439 billion compared to the same period the previous year. However, the number of transactions decreased by 8%. A similar trend was observed in the US, where, despite a 40% increase in total transaction value, the number of transactions fell by 13%.

In summary, while 2025 presents some uncertainties, as highlighted, it is forecasted to be a positive year for European M&A. The region should leverage its geopolitical stability as a strength to attract both domestic and foreign investment, solidifying the definitive revival of European M&A activity.

​Since the implementation of the Order of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security of January 27, 1982, until today, the Global Mobility has been growing considerably. The increasing number of workers moving abroad, the international mobility as a common practice in companies and the various events that have occurred over the last few years, have converted many of the precepts included in the aforementioned regulation into obsolete.

That is why, after more than forty years, a new regulation has been implemented in this field, effective as of November 1, 2023. This is the “Order ISM/835/2023, of July 20, which regulates the situation assimilated to the registration in the Social Security system of posted workers who work abroad employed by companies that carry out their activities in Spanish territory“.

The regulation covers the posted workers when they are obliged, in accordance with the regulations of the country of destination, to terminate their registration with the Spanish Social Security, in order to continue paying contributions in Spain. The new scenarios apply to seconded workers, when they are posted:

• To countries without a bilateral agreement
• To countries with a bilateral agreement, but without subjective coverage (such as Chile, Philippines, Mexico, Morocco, Ukraine, Russia…).
• To countries with bilateral agreements that do not contemplate the figure of secondment.
• Or when they have used the maximum period covered by the bilateral agreement, having already extended it.

For each of these situations, it will be possible to continue paying contributions in Spain, despite the general lex loci laboris rule, as long as the deadlines and formalities designed for each of the cases are complied with and within the limit of the protective action established by the law.

The aim is to cover situations that were not covered by the previous regulations, dispensing the protective action in a more flexible way and undoubtedly favorable for both companies and workers. Especially for those groups that until now were discouraged from relocating, such as workers closer to retirement.

Whereas in the past, workers’ acceptance of job offers involving secondment abroad was likely to be rejected due to the shortcomings of the Spanish Social Security coverage system, such cases will now be overcome. Very often these offers include more favorable working and economic conditions, and there will no longer be uncertainty as to the continuity of Social Security coverage.

Now more than ever, it is important to coordinate the actions of companies and their employees when relocating abroad, so that they are carried out in an orderly and joint manner, and to guarantee an effective protective action.

At Audiconsultores ETL GLOBAL, our Global Mobility department can advise you on how to comply with these formalities.

This article aims to clarify the framework for the Digital Nomad, by identifying critical issues in the first trimester of the implementation of the 28/2022 Law for international teleworkers.

Since January 2023, the Digital Nomad Visa has become a reality, being a legal entry mechanism for all regular, highly qualified non-EU citizens who intend to continue their work or professional activity (previously performed in their country of origin) remotely from Spain, with foreign companies.

It is interesting to emphasize the potential of the law. It has introduced the new authorization (for a three-year period), and also the subsequent extension of the “special tax regime for posted employees” (the Beckham Law) to employees or professionals who are teleworking from Spain. It thus covers all the prerogatives, bringing up legal issues and establishing a new regulatory framework for the emerging “post-covid teleworkers”.

In this way, the aim is to solve the irregularities committed during the previous years at the labour and social security level, concerning this category (unregulated so far) such as, for instance, digital nomads with non-lucrative visas, or transnational employees “loaned” to Spanish-resident companies.

There is also a tax benefit for the worker and his family, in order to make international mobility more attractive. By applying a flat tax rate of 24% for the first €600,000 (instead of 50% under the ordinary tax system), the digital nomad might be more motivated to declare as such and regularize his income in Spain.

However, from a practical perspective, has it been effectively possible to obtain the visa with its benefits? Have any difficulties been experienced?

During these months the administration, acting through the Large Business Units (UGE), has implemented the new authorization for those who are in Spain on a regular basis, complying with the premises, the basic requirements and the specialties contained in each case of the law. On the other hand, no visas have been issued by the Consulates yet, as they are waiting for the instructions that are supposed to arrive at the end of March 2023. Therefore, the fastest way (and the only one at the moment) to obtain the authorization for international teleworking is by applying directly from Spain, through the services of the UGE, sending the request once the displacement has been carried out on a regular basis (with or without visa).

Regarding the tax benefits of this new category, we regret the suspension of the application procedure for the special tax regime, since the Spanish Tax Authority has declared to be “pending of the regulatory development for the approval of the new application Form adapted to the new situations and conditions” of digital nomads (and their families).

This means that, the Digital Nomads will be able to apply for the Beckham Law at a later time, and as soon as the new Form is approved, despite having received the authorization of residence at a time prior to the approval of the development regulation.

Faced with this scenario, legal and fiscal advice and support on the matter is necessary, to overcome the technical and administrative difficulties that this procedure implies, and to define a strategic line of a realistic international mobility on the aforementioned critical issues.